Forecasting AI Futures

Why Future AIs will Require New Alignment Methods

Shallow Alignment VS Deep Alignment

Oct 10 • 

Alvin Ånestrand

1

AI and Biological Risk: Forecasting Key Capability Thresholds

AI-Enabled Human-Caused Biological Catastrophes - Part 1

Oct 1 • 

Alvin Ånestrand

1

September 2025

AI Turning Points: Timelines and Stakes

Exploring critical thresholds in dangerous AI capabilities

Sep 17 • 

Alvin Ånestrand

1

July 2025

The ultimate goal

Why forecasting AI?

Jul 5 • 

Alvin Ånestrand

3

5

June 2025

Forecasting AI Forecasting

Will AI take over my blog?

Jun 23 • 

Alvin Ånestrand

2

2

Powerful Predictions

Some notes on impactful forecasting

Jun 5 • 

Alvin Ånestrand

May 2025

AI 2027 - Rogue Replication Timeline

My version of AI 2027

May 29 • 

Alvin Ånestrand

5

4

What if Agent-4 breaks out?

Examining 4 fictional scenarios for drafting an alternative AI 2027 timeline

May 9 • 

Alvin Ånestrand

1

April 2025

Anticipating AI: Keeping Up With What We Build

My speech at Infotiv

Apr 24 • 

Alvin Ånestrand

Emergent Misalignment and Emergent Alignment

Effects of perceived intent

Apr 2 • 

Alvin Ånestrand

March 2025

Forecasting AI Futures Resource Hub

Predictions, analyses, organizations, blogs... and everything else

Mar 19 • 

Alvin Ånestrand

1

Musings on Scenario Forecasting and AI

It's time to imagine some AI futures

Mar 6 • 

Alvin Ånestrand