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Jeremy Oldfather's avatar

That's an interesting question. I've developed an AI prediction platform. So I guess you could just check-in with AI intermittently and ask it if it is AGI yet :)

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Jeffrey Soreff's avatar

"If you know of a market that I have missed, please tell me in the comment section!"

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/

"When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?"

( today's date estimates: 2026-10-10 (2025-09-05 - 2029-04-27) )

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Alvin Ånestrand's avatar

Thank you for the suggestion!

I actually considered including it, but desided against since it seems a bit outdated. The Turing test in the resolution criteria is no longer running, and AIs might have passed it already if it was.

The only criteria left might be the Montezuma's Revenge criteria. But Operator is already able to perform similar tasks (but could not be tested on Montezuma's revenge), see this comment:

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/#comment-253956

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Jeffrey Soreff's avatar

Many Thanks!

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Nathan Young's avatar

Hey I'm doing a similar project and aim to have a dashboard up soon.

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Alvin Ånestrand's avatar

Cool! I'd love to know more, please tell me when you are done with the dashboard

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